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HLM Textbook Examples
Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence
by Judith D. Singer and John B. Willett
Chapter 6: Modeling discontinuous and nonlinear change


Table 6.2, page 203

Table 6.2. uses wages.SSM. Alternative discontinuous change trajectories: HS dropout data
Model A: EXPER, HGC-9, BLACK*EXPER, UE-7

 Sigma_squared =      0.09479
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.05065      -0.00292 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00292       0.00163 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00467       0.00081 
    EXPER,B1      0.00081       0.00019 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.321
    EXPER,B1 -0.321  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.462
     EXPER, B1                        0.344
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 850 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 17 = -2.415260E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.748988   0.011400   153.421       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.044054   0.002604    16.918       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018183   0.004485    -4.055       886    0.000
 For    HGC_9 slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.040010   0.006363     6.288      6397    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30          -0.011950   0.001792    -6.670      6397    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.748988   0.011429   153.033       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.044054   0.002532    17.396       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018183   0.004307    -4.222       886    0.000
 For    HGC_9 slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.040010   0.006435     6.218      6397    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30          -0.011950   0.002002    -5.969      6397    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.22505       0.05065   849    1740.10875    0.000
    EXPER slope, U1        0.04041       0.00163   848    1630.45143    0.000
  level-1,       R         0.30788       0.09479
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 850 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4830.519124
 Number of estimated parameters = 9

Model B: A + GED as fixed and random effect

 Sigma_squared =      0.09416
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.04361      -0.00262       0.00231 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00262       0.00166      -0.00218 
      GED,B2      0.00231      -0.00218       0.02830 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00473       0.00082       0.00706 
    EXPER,B1      0.00082       0.00020       0.00130 
      GED,B2      0.00706       0.00130       0.01446 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.308  0.066
    EXPER,B1 -0.308  1.000 -0.318
      GED,B2  0.066 -0.318  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.378
     EXPER, B1                        0.233
       GED, B2                        0.147
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 104 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 22 = -2.402759E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.734212   0.011800   146.971       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.043224   0.002621    16.490       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018200   0.004471    -4.071       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.061321   0.018449     3.324       887    0.001
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.038334   0.006265     6.119      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011609   0.001788    -6.494      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.734212   0.011662   148.704       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.043224   0.002562    16.872       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018200   0.004264    -4.268       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.061321   0.018327     3.346       887    0.001
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.038334   0.006357     6.030      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011609   0.002017    -5.757      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.20882       0.04361   103     146.13199    0.004
    EXPER slope, U1        0.04075       0.00166   102     177.35923    0.000
      GED slope, U2        0.16823       0.02830   103     109.96355    0.301
  level-1,       R         0.30686       0.09416
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 104 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4805.517557
 Number of estimated parameters = 13

Model C: Model B without random effect of GED

 Sigma_squared =      0.09473
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.05059      -0.00304 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00304       0.00164 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00467       0.00081 
    EXPER,B1      0.00081       0.00019 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.334
    EXPER,B1 -0.334  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.462
     EXPER, B1                        0.344
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 850 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 17 = -2.409162E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.734305   0.012135   142.923       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.043327   0.002609    16.607       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018523   0.004461    -4.152       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.059123   0.016868     3.505      6396    0.001
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.039042   0.006334     6.164      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011593   0.001793    -6.467      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.734305   0.011714   148.052       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.043327   0.002559    16.930       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018523   0.004258    -4.350       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.059123   0.018261     3.238      6396    0.002
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.039042   0.006387     6.113      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011593   0.002003    -5.787      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.22491       0.05059   849    1737.20223    0.000
    EXPER slope, U1        0.04045       0.00164   848    1632.64720    0.000
  level-1,       R         0.30779       0.09473
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 850 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4818.324301
 Number of estimated parameters = 10

Model D: A + POSTEXP as fixed and random effect

 Sigma_squared =      0.09464
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.05057      -0.00246      -0.00201 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00246       0.00145      -0.00003 
  POSTEXP,B2     -0.00201      -0.00003       0.00084 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00468       0.00087       0.00142 
    EXPER,B1      0.00087       0.00021       0.00086 
  POSTEXP,B2      0.00142       0.00086       0.00171 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.287 -0.310
    EXPER,B1 -0.287  1.000 -0.024
  POSTEXP,B2 -0.310 -0.024  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.254
     EXPER, B1                        0.073
   POSTEXP, B2                        0.013
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 96 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 24 = -2.408689E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.749372   0.011399   153.461       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.040653   0.002777    14.637       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019495   0.004475    -4.357       886    0.000
 For  POSTEXP slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.014591   0.004565     3.196       887    0.002
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.039868   0.006354     6.275      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011839   0.001791    -6.612      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.749372   0.011467   152.563       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.040653   0.002750    14.784       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019495   0.004265    -4.571       886    0.000
 For  POSTEXP slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.014591   0.004539     3.215       887    0.002
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.039868   0.006400     6.229      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011839   0.001998    -5.927      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.22488       0.05057    95      97.32352    0.415
    EXPER slope, U1        0.03805       0.00145    94     128.15709    0.011
  POSTEXP slope, U2        0.02891       0.00084    95     124.13282    0.024
  level-1,       R         0.30764       0.09464
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 96 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4817.378460
 Number of estimated parameters = 13

Model E: Model D without random effect of POSTEXP

 Sigma_squared =      0.09483
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.05086      -0.00305 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00305       0.00161 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00468       0.00081 
    EXPER,B1      0.00081       0.00019 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.336
    EXPER,B1 -0.336  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.463
     EXPER, B1                        0.342
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 850 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 17 = -2.410353E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.749888   0.011412   153.341       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.040505   0.002829    14.316       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019178   0.004454    -4.306       886    0.000
 For  POSTEXP slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.013962   0.004424     3.156      6396    0.002
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.039534   0.006334     6.242      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011847   0.001791    -6.616      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.749888   0.011442   152.931       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.040505   0.002756    14.698       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019178   0.004247    -4.515       886    0.000
 For  POSTEXP slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.013962   0.004521     3.089      6396    0.002
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.039534   0.006396     6.181      6396    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011847   0.002005    -5.908      6396    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.22553       0.05086   849    1742.87922    0.000
    EXPER slope, U1        0.04017       0.00161   848    1626.78723    0.000
  level-1,       R         0.30795       0.09483
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 850 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4820.706583
 Number of estimated parameters = 10

Model F: Model A with fixed and random effects of GED and POSTEXP

 Sigma_squared =      0.09386
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00190
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.04135      -0.00170       0.01134      -0.00595 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00170       0.00136       0.00295      -0.00092 
      GED,B2      0.01134       0.00295       0.01735      -0.00399 
  POSTEXP,B3     -0.00595      -0.00092      -0.00399       0.00336 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00471       0.00084       0.00804       0.00265 
    EXPER,B1      0.00084       0.00021       0.00358       0.00114 
      GED,B2      0.00804       0.00358       0.01543       0.00445 
  POSTEXP,B3      0.00265       0.00114       0.00445       0.00229 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.227  0.423 -0.504
    EXPER,B1 -0.227  1.000  0.607 -0.431
      GED,B2  0.423  0.607  1.000 -0.522
  POSTEXP,B3 -0.504 -0.431 -0.522  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.227
     EXPER, B1                        0.054
       GED, B2                        0.063
   POSTEXP, B3                        0.049
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 61 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 19 = -2.394679E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738550   0.011949   145.498       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041475   0.002798    14.824       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019620   0.004470    -4.389       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.040940   0.022022     1.859       887    0.063
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.009412   0.005546     1.697       887    0.089
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.039032   0.006243     6.252      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011723   0.001783    -6.575      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738550   0.011902   146.069       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041475   0.002755    15.056       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019620   0.004255    -4.611       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.040940   0.021962     1.864       887    0.062
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.009412   0.005547     1.697       887    0.089
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.039032   0.006339     6.158      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011723   0.002001    -5.859      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.20336       0.04135    60      79.33686    0.048
    EXPER slope, U1        0.03690       0.00136    59      70.25123    0.150
      GED slope, U2        0.13172       0.01735    60      45.99434    >.500
  POSTEXP slope, U3        0.05801       0.00336    60      66.49441    0.263
  level-1,       R         0.30637       0.09386
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 61 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4789.358670
 Number of estimated parameters = 18

Model G: Model F without random effect of POSTEXP

Sigma_squared =      0.09417
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.04349      -0.00258       0.00250 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00258       0.00165      -0.00235 
      GED,B2      0.00250      -0.00235       0.02856 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00472       0.00082       0.00702 
    EXPER,B1      0.00082       0.00020       0.00130 
      GED,B2      0.00702       0.00130       0.01441 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.304  0.071
    EXPER,B1 -0.304  1.000 -0.342
      GED,B2  0.071 -0.342  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.377
     EXPER, B1                        0.232
       GED, B2                        0.148
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 104 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 22 = -2.401344E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738929   0.012113   143.560       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041169   0.002884    14.274       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018706   0.004470    -4.185       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.043071   0.021362     2.016       887    0.043
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.008663   0.005120     1.692      6395    0.090
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.038309   0.006263     6.116      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011635   0.001787    -6.509      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738929   0.011873   146.455       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041169   0.002773    14.849       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018706   0.004256    -4.395       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.043071   0.022058     1.953       887    0.050
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.008663   0.005464     1.585      6395    0.113
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.038309   0.006352     6.031      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011635   0.002019    -5.762      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.20855       0.04349   103     146.91169    0.003
    EXPER slope, U1        0.04063       0.00165   102     181.91198    0.000
      GED slope, U2        0.16900       0.02856   103     110.20574    0.295
  level-1,       R         0.30688       0.09417
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 104 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4802.688491
 Number of estimated parameters = 14

Model H: Model F without random effect of GED

 Sigma_squared =      0.09458
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.05038      -0.00247      -0.00192 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00247       0.00145       0.00002 
  POSTEXP,B3     -0.00192       0.00002       0.00073 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00467       0.00087       0.00142 
    EXPER,B1      0.00087       0.00021       0.00086 
  POSTEXP,B3      0.00142       0.00086       0.00172 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.289 -0.317
    EXPER,B1 -0.289  1.000  0.019
  POSTEXP,B3 -0.317  0.019  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.253
     EXPER, B1                        0.073
   POSTEXP, B3                        0.012
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 96 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 23 = -2.406320E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738568   0.012421   139.968       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041471   0.002804    14.791       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019353   0.004477    -4.322       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.042538   0.019488     2.183      6395    0.029
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.008548   0.005330     1.604       887    0.108
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.039345   0.006351     6.195      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011623   0.001792    -6.485      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738568   0.011942   145.587       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041471   0.002764    15.001       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019353   0.004262    -4.540       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.042538   0.021941     1.939      6395    0.052
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.008548   0.005518     1.549       887    0.121
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.039345   0.006383     6.164      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011623   0.001999    -5.813      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.22445       0.05038    95      98.74449    0.376
    EXPER slope, U1        0.03810       0.00145    94     126.58021    0.014
  POSTEXP slope, U3        0.02703       0.00073    95     121.89981    0.033
  level-1,       R         0.30754       0.09458
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 96 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4812.639706
 Number of estimated parameters = 14

Model I: Model A with GED and GED*EXPER as fixed and random effects. Notice that it took HLM more than 4,000 iterations to converge. 

 Sigma_squared =      0.09370
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00190
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.04128      -0.00182      -0.00476      -0.00072 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00182       0.00140       0.00472      -0.00052 
      GED,B2     -0.00476       0.00472       0.06257      -0.01142 
  GEDXEXP,B5     -0.00072      -0.00052      -0.01142       0.00232 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00478       0.00086       0.01707       0.00314 
    EXPER,B1      0.00086       0.00021       0.01036       0.00146 
      GED,B2      0.01707       0.01036       0.03410       0.01203 
  GEDXEXP,B5      0.00314       0.00146       0.01203       0.00288 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.239 -0.094 -0.073
    EXPER,B1 -0.239  1.000  0.504 -0.289
      GED,B2 -0.094  0.504  1.000 -0.948
  GEDXEXP,B5 -0.073 -0.289 -0.948  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.224
     EXPER, B1                        0.053
       GED, B2                        0.107
   GEDXEXP, B5                        0.035
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 60 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 4228 = -2.396857E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.737949   0.012228   142.123       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041880   0.002877    14.554       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019002   0.004470    -4.251       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.045858   0.026144     1.754       887    0.079
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.038095   0.006253     6.092      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011729   0.001786    -6.567      6395    0.000
 For  GEDXEXP slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50           0.005401   0.005452     0.991       887    0.322
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.737949   0.012150   143.043       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041880   0.002815    14.878       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019002   0.004255    -4.466       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.045858   0.026025     1.762       887    0.078
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.038095   0.006344     6.005      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011729   0.002013    -5.826      6395    0.000
 For  GEDXEXP slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50           0.005401   0.005429     0.995       887    0.320
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.20317       0.04128    59      79.05320    0.042
    EXPER slope, U1        0.03748       0.00140    58      66.52456    0.207
      GED slope, U2        0.25014       0.06257    59      68.13995    0.194
  GEDXEXP slope, U5        0.04814       0.00232    59      66.62055    0.231
  level-1,       R         0.30611       0.09370
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 60 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4793.713277
 Number of estimated parameters = 18

Model J: Model I without random effect of GED*EXPER

Sigma_squared =      0.09416
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00191
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.04363      -0.00261       0.00164 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00261       0.00166      -0.00222 
      GED,B2      0.00164      -0.00222       0.02962 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00473       0.00082       0.00711 
    EXPER,B1      0.00082       0.00020       0.00130 
      GED,B2      0.00711       0.00130       0.01458 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.307  0.046
    EXPER,B1 -0.307  1.000 -0.317
      GED,B2  0.046 -0.317  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.378
     EXPER, B1                        0.232
       GED, B2                        0.152
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 104 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 22 = -2.402301E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.737770   0.012387   140.288       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041881   0.002972    14.093       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018329   0.004467    -4.103       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.045708   0.024698     1.851       887    0.064
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.038275   0.006264     6.110      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011626   0.001788    -6.504      6395    0.000
 For  GEDXEXP slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50           0.004874   0.005064     0.962      6395    0.336
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.737770   0.012132   143.237       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041881   0.002827    14.813       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.018329   0.004254    -4.309       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.045708   0.025935     1.762       887    0.078
 For    HGC_9 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.038275   0.006351     6.026      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40          -0.011626   0.002019    -5.759      6395    0.000
 For  GEDXEXP slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50           0.004874   0.005337     0.913      6395    0.361
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.20887       0.04363   103     146.42608    0.003
    EXPER slope, U1        0.04068       0.00166   102     179.59296    0.000
      GED slope, U2        0.17209       0.02962   103     110.33494    0.292
  level-1,       R         0.30685       0.09416
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 104 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4804.601475
 Number of estimated parameters = 14

Table 6.3, page 205

Table 6.3
Model F (with discontinuities in elevation and slope)
 

Sigma_squared =      0.09386
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      0.00190
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.04135      -0.00170       0.01134      -0.00595 
    EXPER,B1     -0.00170       0.00136       0.00295      -0.00092 
      GED,B2      0.01134       0.00295       0.01735      -0.00399 
  POSTEXP,B3     -0.00595      -0.00092      -0.00399       0.00336 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0      0.00471       0.00084       0.00804       0.00265 
    EXPER,B1      0.00084       0.00021       0.00358       0.00114 
      GED,B2      0.00804       0.00358       0.01543       0.00445 
  POSTEXP,B3      0.00265       0.00114       0.00445       0.00229 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.227  0.423 -0.504
    EXPER,B1 -0.227  1.000  0.607 -0.431
      GED,B2  0.423  0.607  1.000 -0.522
  POSTEXP,B3 -0.504 -0.431 -0.522  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.227
     EXPER, B1                        0.054
       GED, B2                        0.063
   POSTEXP, B3                        0.049
 ----------------------------------------------------
Note: The reliability estimates reported above are based on only 61 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 19 = -2.394679E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738550   0.011949   145.498       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041475   0.002798    14.824       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019620   0.004470    -4.389       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.040940   0.022022     1.859       887    0.063
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.009412   0.005546     1.697       887    0.089
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.039032   0.006243     6.252      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011723   0.001783    -6.575      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00           1.738550   0.011902   146.069       887    0.000
 For    EXPER slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10           0.041475   0.002755    15.056       886    0.000
       BLACK, G11          -0.019620   0.004255    -4.611       886    0.000
 For      GED slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.040940   0.021962     1.864       887    0.062
 For  POSTEXP slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.009412   0.005547     1.697       887    0.089
 For    HGC_9 slope, B4
    INTRCPT2, G40           0.039032   0.006339     6.158      6395    0.000
 For     UE_7 slope, B5
    INTRCPT2, G50          -0.011723   0.002001    -5.859      6395    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        0.20336       0.04135    60      79.33687    0.048
    EXPER slope, U1        0.03690       0.00136    59      70.25125    0.150
      GED slope, U2        0.13172       0.01735    60      45.99438    >.500
  POSTEXP slope, U3        0.05801       0.00336    60      66.49441    0.263
  level-1,       R         0.30637       0.09386
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The chi-square statistics reported above are based on only 61 of 888
units that had sufficient data for computation.  Fixed effects and variance
components are based on all the data.
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 4789.358653
 Number of estimated parameters = 18

Table 6.5, page 221

Table 6.5: Alternative polynomial change trajectories for externalizing data.

Model A: no change

 Sigma_squared =     70.20296
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      6.61880
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0     87.41789 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0     20.92509 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.882
 ----------------------------------------------------
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 2 = -1.005127E+003
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          12.962963   1.484126     8.734        44    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          12.962963   1.484126     8.734        44    0.000
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0        9.34975      87.41789    44     381.20846    0.000
  level-1,       R         8.37872      70.20296
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 2010.253021
 Number of estimated parameters = 3

Model B: linear change

 Sigma_squared =     53.71799
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      5.66237
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0    123.52437     -12.53790 
     TIME,B1    -12.53790       4.69289 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0     32.11051       5.99118 
     TIME,B1      5.99118       1.66816 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.521
     TIME,B1 -0.521  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.814
      TIME, B1                        0.605
 ----------------------------------------------------
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 2 = -9.958722E+002
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          13.289947   1.835831     7.239        44    0.000
 For     TIME slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10          -0.130794   0.415331    -0.315        44    0.754
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          13.289947   1.835831     7.239        44    0.000
 For     TIME slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10          -0.130794   0.415331    -0.315        44    0.754
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0       11.11415     123.52437    44     242.54772    0.000
     TIME slope, U1        2.16631       4.69289    44     113.79720    0.000
  level-1,       R         7.32926      53.71799
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 1991.744454
 Number of estimated parameters = 6

Model C: Quadratic change

 Sigma_squared =     41.98360
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      5.11008
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0    107.08541      -3.69057      -1.36174 
     TIME,B1     -3.69057      24.60986      -4.96378 
    TIME2,B2     -1.36174      -4.96378       1.21565 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0     30.13971      14.15802       2.77438 
     TIME,B1     14.15802      12.19998       2.41363 
    TIME2,B2      2.77438       2.41363       0.51200 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.072 -0.119
     TIME,B1 -0.072  1.000 -0.908
    TIME2,B2 -0.119 -0.908  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.756
      TIME, B1                        0.446
     TIME2, B2                        0.519
 ----------------------------------------------------
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 2 = -9.879182E+002
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          13.969841   1.773709     7.876        44    0.000
 For     TIME slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10          -1.150635   1.106776    -1.040        44    0.305
 For    TIME2 slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.203968   0.228046     0.894        44    0.376
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          13.969841   1.773709     7.876        44    0.000
 For     TIME slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10          -1.150635   1.106776    -1.040        44    0.305
 For    TIME2 slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20           0.203968   0.228046     0.894        44    0.376
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0       10.34821     107.08541    44     184.73120    0.000
     TIME slope, U1        4.96083      24.60986    44      81.29406    0.001
    TIME2 slope, U2        1.10257       1.21565    44      93.64513    0.000
  level-1,       R         6.47947      41.98360
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 1975.836435
 Number of estimated parameters = 10

Model D: Cubic change. Notice that it takes this model many iterations to converge.

 Sigma_squared =     37.76460
 Standard Error of Sigma_squared =      5.62961
 Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0    128.92000     -56.31227      24.64387      -3.26316 
     TIME,B1    -56.31227     107.26226     -41.38144       4.11826 
    TIME2,B2     24.64387     -41.38144      16.80332      -1.70590 
    TIME3,B3     -3.26316       4.11826      -1.70590       0.18016 
 Standard Errors of Tau
 INTRCPT1,B0     35.24141      34.30770      15.14460       1.85113 
     TIME,B1     34.30770      55.35433      24.88704       2.96815 
    TIME2,B2     15.14460      24.88704      11.79645       1.45017 
    TIME3,B3      1.85113       2.96815       1.45017       0.18281 
Tau (as correlations)
 INTRCPT1,B0  1.000 -0.479  0.529 -0.677
     TIME,B1 -0.479  1.000 -0.975  0.937
    TIME2,B2  0.529 -0.975  1.000 -0.980
    TIME3,B3 -0.677  0.937 -0.980  1.000
 ----------------------------------------------------
  Random level-1 coefficient   Reliability estimate
 ----------------------------------------------------
  INTRCPT1, B0                        0.780
      TIME, B1                        0.439
     TIME2, B2                        0.332
     TIME3, B3                        0.236
 ----------------------------------------------------
The value of the likelihood function at iteration 1357 = -9.836930E+002
 Final estimation of fixed effects:
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          13.794533   1.915934     7.200        44    0.000
 For     TIME slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10          -0.350059   2.329009    -0.150        44    0.882
 For    TIME2 slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20          -0.234303   1.060364    -0.221        44    0.826
 For    TIME3 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.058436   0.130209     0.449        44    0.655
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of fixed effects
 (with robust standard errors)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Standard             Approx.
    Fixed Effect         Coefficient   Error      T-ratio   d.f.     P-value
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 For       INTRCPT1, B0
    INTRCPT2, G00          13.794533   1.915922     7.200        44    0.000
 For     TIME slope, B1
    INTRCPT2, G10          -0.350059   2.301917    -0.152        44    0.880
 For    TIME2 slope, B2
    INTRCPT2, G20          -0.234303   1.034269    -0.227        44    0.822
 For    TIME3 slope, B3
    INTRCPT2, G30           0.058436   0.125693     0.465        44    0.644
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Final estimation of variance components:
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Random Effect           Standard      Variance     df    Chi-square  P-value
                         Deviation     Component
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INTRCPT1,       U0       11.35429     128.92000    44     204.96557    0.000
     TIME slope, U1       10.35675     107.26226    44      78.41929    0.001
    TIME2 slope, U2        4.09919      16.80332    44      64.10048    0.025
    TIME3 slope, U3        0.42445       0.18016    44      54.89527    0.126
  level-1,       R         6.14529      37.76460
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Statistics for current covariance components model
 --------------------------------------------------
 Deviance                       = 1967.385967
 Number of estimated parameters = 15

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